By A. J. Kaufman, Managing Editor
Emily Mitchell, vice president and regional executive at the Nashville Branch of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, came east to visit the Tri-Cities in May.
She gave a relevant and timely presentation on the current state of the national economy to the Kingsport Chamber of Commerce Executive Committee and Board of Directors Combined Meeting.
Mitchell primarily spoke of the Federal Reserve’s balancing its dual mandate between price stability and maximum employment. She said the current national economy looks “fairly stable and healthy” but has “a number of risks at play.”
Using various informative charts, Mitchell touched upon topics ranging from artificial intelligence, tariffs and inflation to unemployment, consumer spending and the K-shaped aspect of consumer spending, where parts of the economy simultaneously move in opposite directions.
She noted that the Atlanta Fed is keeping an eye on how job growth has largely been propped up by the healthcare sector over the past year. Additionally, she says there is some risk on the consumer spending side given “the strain firms report among lower and moderate-income consumers.”
Mitchell also explained that before the energy crisis related to the Middle East conflict, the country had started to see signs of slight relief in overall inflation.
Her succinct summary included:
- Activity seems fairly consistent, with solid growth for the foreseeable future.
- Consumer spending has been remarkably resilient, especially in the aggregate.
- Business investment is bolstered by spending on data centers and AI.
- Labor market feels relatively stable and in balance.
- Businesses are reporting ongoing cost and pricing pressures, and that is borne out in the inflation data.
Mitchell says she is constantly in the field throughout the year, talking to various businesses across the state to allow “all of these voices of business to participate in informing policymaking, so that we understand conditions in real-time even better.”
The Business Journal of Tri-Cities attended and caught up with Mitchell afterward.
She explained that she visited the Tri-Cities because she likes to stay in regular contact with local business leaders and observe trends seen in certain areas. Mitchell gives presentations like hers at the Kingsport Chamber fairly regularly, as well as to various business association groups across the state, and believes they are often helpful for business leaders.
“I’ve heard from business owners that it can be easy to get mired in the work of running your business, so it’s often nice to step briefly out of that mindset and hear an overview of macro-level trends and think about how that relates to the goods and services you’re providing, how you’re investing and how you think about hiring plans,” she explained. “And then, for me, it’s also helpful to hear from businesses directly about what they are experiencing day to day.”
Mitchell met one-on-one with business leaders in Kingsport on her second day in the region and plans to return later this year.
“I’m a filter to collect information on business conditions from hundreds of business owners every year,” she said. “My job is to help distinguish the story of where the economy is headed and provide that information to our senior leadership in Atlanta to help inform their perspective on monetary policy.”
Her biggest concern about the economy right now is the present uncertainty and how external factors can heighten it.
“I’ve been hearing from firms about how they operate in this environment of uncertainty and make plans to pivot and stay fairly nimble, given the impacts of the Middle East war, tariffs still at play, and other factors they are trying to navigate around. Most of these are not specific to challenges within their own firms, but are external conditions that certainly have impact,” Mitchell said. “We will continue to monitor to make sure that we hear from firms about how they are thinking about their business decision-making as a result.”
She also considers her job to be a relationship builder.
“Every day I get to have great conversations with accomplished, brilliant business owners,” she said. “I work every day to continue to build great, deep relationships that allow business to share information with me that helps inform the Atlanta Fed president’s perspective on monetary policy.”
After visiting the Appalachian Highlands, Mitchell is sanguine about the region and its future.
“The firms I spoke to are all bullish on the region’s growth,” she concluded. “What’s exciting is learning about the diverse economy. There is strong manufacturing, a robust healthcare sector, logistics and distribution, and certainly tourism is growing. That diversification feels like a strong foundation for ongoing economic resilience in the area.”
